The seasons are changing. Perhaps you’ve noticed. Or, if you’re like me, you’ve been spending a lot more time indoors thanks to the release of the annual slew of prestige films and awards contenders looking for some shiny hardware. It’s Oscar season, folks, and the Academy has tinkered with its rule systems once again. The Best Picture category expanded from 5 to 10 nominees in 2009 amidst some grumbles from purists. Starting this year, the Best Picture category can consist of between 5 and 10 nominees. The number will depend upon the percentage of first place votes on Academy members ballots; a 5% share of first place votes secures a Best Picture nomination.

Having accurately guessed all ten 2010 nominees back in mid November, I suppose maybe they have a point about wanting to add some spontaneity into the race. However, having accurately guessed all ten 2010 nominees (can you tell I’m proud of my prognostication skills?), I feel like doing it again. So here it is folks, some very early and premature 2011 Best Picture speculation. Except I’m going to be completely right. You’ll see.

Last year's race was a bit easier to call because the excellent Hollywood movies made themselves known that summer. In 2011, we don’t have anything approaching an Inception or a Toy Story 3. Speaking about Pixar, I was about ready to declare an annual Pixar Nominee Slot for the perennial dream makers. Then Cars 2 happened. Enough said. The only wide release of 2011 that will likely find a nomination is The Help, a popular movie based on a popular book about Major Things. That’s a good recipe for a nomination. Woody Allen’s most commercially successful movie of his career (not adjusted for inflation), Midnight in Paris, charmed older audiences all summer. I think it’s a safe bet that as Academy members watch darker, serious fare in the coming weeks (get ready for a lot of explicit sex), they’ll think back pleasantly about Allen’s pleasant fable. It’s in. Moneyball was a baseball movie that managed to transcend baseball. It’s smart enough and has enough panache to snag a nomination, especially with its sleeper success at the box-office.

But what about all the prestige films in release or awaiting release? Steven Spielberg is a name that you have to immediately take seriously. Spielberg plus war has been an Academy friendly combination for decades (though no love for the man’s 1941). War Horse, Spielberg’s World War I drama, is also based on a Tony Award-winning play. It’s hard to imagine the film doesn’t grab a nomination. Likewise, the 9/11 drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has the right ingredients to be seen as a serious contender. The fact that it’s directed by Stephen Daldry, who has inexplicably gone 3-for-3 in Best Director nominations for his films (The Reader, The Hours, Billy Elliot), seems like a nomination is fated. That guy could submit his home movies and get a nomination.

Finally, I think this year’s race is, like recent history, a battle between two films. In 2009 it was Avatar v. The Hurt Locker. In 2010, it was Social Network v. King’s Speech (nerds v. royalty, or, critics v. film establishment). This year it will come down to The Artist and The Descendants. A black and white silent movie, The Artist charmed the crowds at Cannes and has the full power of Old Hollywood nostalgia behind it, and Hollywood never misses an opportunity to celebrate itself. The Descendants is more of the bittersweet character-driven dramas we expect this time of year. This one is exceptional and should probably secure star George Clooney some new trophies. Seven nominees is what I'm going with. Who wins come 2012? For that you’ll have to wait and see. I can’t do everything for you.